Resisting the Common Sense?

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A war and its legacy

A war and its fearsome consequences: How the world has changed post-Iraq

President Bush said yesterday that 'the year 2005 will be a turning point in the history of freedom'. But since the start of the war the days have been littered with unintended consequences.

By Anne Penketh
Published: 13 December 2005

Iran

The War of Iraq reflected in numbers

The Iraqi elections provided a classic illustration of the law of unintended consequences: the Americans overthrew the hated dictator, Saddam Hussein, only to see the rise of religious Shia leaders loyal to Iran, which is now ruled by a fanatical hardline president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad. Iraq's Sunni-dominated neighbours are alarmed. Iran has been accused by Britain of stirring up trouble across the border in Iraq, where soldiers in the southhave fallen victim to bomb attacks. After President Bush encouraged Iranians to vote for reform, it was the hardline mayor of Tehran who was voted in as president. President Bush's public dismissal of the Iranian election, the day before the first round of voting, as "an electoral process that ignores the basic requirements of democracy", may have been responsible for a large turnout.

Torture/Rendition

America's attitude to security changed after the events of 11 September 2001. But the Bush administration's tolerance of methods explicitly banned by the UN convention on torture has raised a chorus of protests from human rights organisations as the US continues its "war on terror" by flying suspects around the world to a network of secret prisons. It found its most revolting expression in the abuse at Abu Ghraib. The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, says that the US does not condone torture, although she recognises abuse will happen. One of the unintended consequences of President Bush's stance is that it has brought alliances with unusual bedfellows, such as the dictatorship of Uzbekistan, whose President has opponents boiled to death, in the interests of the "war on terror".

Egypt

Must be President Bush's greatest disappointment, after his call for greater democracy backfired. After publicly urging President Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's veteran leader, to loosen the grip of the ruling party on power, the big winners in the parliamentary election were the Islamic fundamentalists of the Muslim Brotherhood. The Egyptian government made no secret of its fear that the alternative to the ruling National Democratic Party was chaos. The NDP was the victor in the parliamentary elections, but voting brought the death of at least one opposition supporter and mass arrests. In the event, the NDP remained the dominant party as expected but the Muslim Brotherhood, forced to run its MPs as independent candidates, increased its power in parliament nearly sixfold.

Terrorism

Tony Blair was fond of saying before the Iraq war that he feared the nexus of weapons of mass destruction and terrorists coming together to threaten global security. Yet there was never any proof of the alleged link between Saddam Hussein and al-Qa'ida. Terror has surged in Iraq since the war, with Islamic groups beheading hostages and seizing foreigners and Iraqis at will to hold them to ransom. The Sunni and foreign-led insurgency has been able to swell its ranks in large swaths of Iraq where the US-led coalition does not venture, and cross the border at will. A majority of Iraqis questioned by a BBC poll said that the situation in their country was "bad" and 75 per cent said that they wanted restoring public security to be the priority of the new government, due to be formed after this week's elections.

Syria/Lebanon

Pressure from the US to co-operate in quelling the insurgency in the aftermath of the Iraq war may end up destabilising the Syrian President, Bashir al-Assad, who has already been weakened politically by the forced withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon. The assassination of the anti-Syrian former Lebanese president Rafiq Hariri cast further doubt on the stability of the region, as car bombs targeting other anti-Syrian figures seem to be blasting Lebanon back into civil war after the democratic elections held last May. Much as the Americans may welcome the departure of the regime in Syria, which is still on the State Department's terror list, further instability in the tinderbox region on Iraq's doorstep would be a nightmare for the Bush administration.

America

America's standing in the world, and the President's popularity ratings, have plummeted in the 1,000 days since the war began, despite initial public support for the invasion. With close aides now under investigation by a special prosecutor, President Bush has been haunted by the decision to go to war after ignoring warnings from the intelligence community about the nature of Iraq's threat. His approval ratings last month stood at 37 per cent, the lowest of his presidency, although they slightly improved this month. Iraq is seen as the factor influencing the negative slide. Global opinion polls show that anti-American sentiment in Europe, the Middle East and Asia surged as a result of the Iraq war. Solid majorities in Muslim countries have a negative opinion of America.

Middle East

George Bush and Tony Blair explicitly linked the aftermath of the Iraq war to the broader goal of seeking peace in the Middle East to envisage a "viable" two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians. But one unintended consequence is that the Israeli government of Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has forged ahead with his own solution, involving the construction of a fence that encroaches into Palestinian land in defiance of international law. The Palestinians fear that if Mr Sharon's breakaway party is victorious in Israeli elections, he will seek to impose a new border which will annex East Jerusalem as well as significant tracts of the West Bank. Meanwhile, when the Palestinian parliamentary elections are held next month, the Islamic militants of Hamas are expected to do well.

Weapons

George Bush and Tony Blair said before the war that they wanted to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction. Not only have none been found inside Iraq, but the war could have actually triggered the spread of such weapons. The overthrow of Saddam Hussein may well have been the factor that pushed the Iranian government into taking a strategic decision to develop a nuclear weapon, even though the Iranians insist that their nuclear programme is peaceful. It had been clear to all that North Korea had been spared attack because of its possession of the bomb while Saddam was known not to have succeeded in building one. So countries may have decided to take out their own insurance policy. Israel is beefing up its own security after the perceived Iranian threat. The Iraq war may have set off a new nuclear arms race.

Lee Kunhee Cleared of charges

Lee Kun-hee Cleared of Slush Fund Suspicion

By Kim Tong-hyung
Staff Reporter

The prosecution will indict a television news reporter who broke the story on the illegal eavesdropping operations of the spy agency in former governments for violating the communication privacy protection law.



In concluding its lengthy probe on the wiretapping scandal, however, the prosecution decided not to take legal action against some high-ranking executives at Samsung Group, including group chairman Lee Kun-hee, who faced allegations of providing slush funds to presidential candidates ahead of the 1997 elections, citing lack of evidence.

The suspicions were backed by news reports on private conversations between company officials that were eavesdropped by spy agents.

The Seoul District Prosecutors' Office yesterday announced the results of its five-month investigation on the spy agency's illegal surveillance activities on civilians during the governments of former presidents Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung.

``The prosecution has conducted a thorough investigation of the spy agency's illegal wiretapping operations on politicians, businessmen, judicial officials and journalists in the past governments. However, with the statute of limitations on most illegal activities under the Kim Young-sam government expiring and the spy agency already having destroyed a significant part of related evidence, there had been difficulties in pushing ahead the investigation,'' said senior prosecutor Hwang Kyo-ahn, who directed the wiretapping investigation, in a news conference yesterday.

During its investigation of the spy agency's wiretapping allegations, the prosecution summoned more than 460 people, including five former spy agency directors and 132 spy agency officials, retired or incumbent.

In Wednesday's news conference, the prosecution revealed that the Agency of National Security Planning, the predecessor of the National Intelligence Service (NIS), had spied on more than 5,400 individuals, including politicians, businessmen and journalists, from 1994 to 1997. The eavesdropping activities were mostly conducted in restaurants, hotels, golf courses and other frequent gathering places, according to prosecutors.

The investigators also said the wiretapped information was reported regularly to former President Kim Young-sam, who held office from 1993 to 1998, and his close aides including his second son Kim Hyun-chul and former senior presidential secretary Lee Won-jong.

Earlier this month, prosecutors indicted former spy agency directors Lim Dong-won and Shin Gunn, who served under the 1998-2003 administration of Kim Dae-jung, for allowing the surveillance of more than 1,800 high-profile figures during their tenures.

The prosecution concluded by indicting Lee Sang-ho, a reporter from local television station MBC, based on the fact that he violated privacy laws by publicly revealing information gathered through illegal methods.

In a news report in July, Lee reported the contents of an audiotape containing a wiretapped conversation between Samsung vice chairman Lee Hak-soo and former Korean Ambassador to Washington Hong Seok-hyun, the publisher of the Samsung-affiliated newspaper JoongAng Ilbo.

According to the report, the two men discussed distributing illegal campaign funds to two rival candidates ahead of the 1997 elections.

MBC's audiotapes, dubbed the ``X-files'' by the media, were traced to now-arrested former intelligence agent Kong Un-young, who had led a special eavesdropping unit within the spy agency during the 1990s. Law enforcement authorities found 274 audiotapes containing wiretapped conversations and 13 documents containing their transcripts at Kong's house in July.

Prosecutors will also indict Kim Yun-kwang, editor-in-chief of the monthly news magazine Monthly Chosun (Wolgan Chosun), which printed the contents of the MBC audiotapes in its September edition.

However, the prosecution said it will not take legal action against the Samsung executives, stating that the statute of limitations for illegal political funding extends only three years under the Korean law, making it impossible to prosecute them.

The probe on Samsung executives had been focused on proving the charges of embezzlement, for which statute of limitations is 10 years should the amount of stashed funds exceed 5 billion won.

However, the prosecution said in Wednesday's announcement that it failed to find evidence to counter the claims by Samsung that the political funds were financed individually by group chairman Lee Kun-hee and not drawn from company coffers.

``Under the principles of the local privacy law, we could not use the `X-files' audiotapes as evidence, and it was difficult to obtain other evidence to counter Samsung's claim. And our options were limited since the illegal political funding incident happened eight years ago and the statute of limitations for such crimes had expired,'' said Hwang.

The prosecution had confirmed in an investigation in 1998 that Samsung executives relayed 4 to 5 billion won to the camp of Lee Hoi-chang, then presidential candidate of the Grand National Party (GNP) ahead of the 1997 elections.

The reported conversations on the spy agency's audiotapes also hint that Samsung had attempted to channel 3 billion won in slush funds to Kim Dae-jung, the presidential candidate of the Millennium Democratic Party (MDP).

The prosecution summoned Samsung vice chairman Lee in August and Hong, who stepped down as ambassador in September, last month for questioning. However, both men denied the bribery allegations stemming from the MBC audiotapes. The prosecution did not summon Samsung chairman Lee and interviewed him only through correspondence.

At the beginning of their investigation, the prosecution had expressed reluctance in using the MBC audiotapes as evidence against Samsung, as it was produced through the spy agency's illegal operations.

However, the civic group People's Solidarity for Participatory Democracy (PSPD) filed a request with the prosecution in July 25 to investigate 20 current and former Samsung executives over their alleged corrupt ties with politicians, including former ambassador Hong and group chairman Lee, making it difficult for investigators to avoid the issue.

The ``X-file Coordination Committee,'' a joint body of 108 civic groups including the PSPD, criticized the prosecution's investigation results on the wiretapping scandal and called for the establishing of an independent council to push further probe into Samsung's slush funds allegations.

From Cloning to Cunning

Suspicion prevails over Dr. Hwang’s cloning paper. Many Korean scientists rise up and ask to verify his research data published in the journal Science. Although their rhetoric is full of concerns about the credibility of the Korean science society, reading between the lines reveals that what is eating them most is this “groundless” anxiety over their careers that further delays of investigation, or being silent about the issue, will either way hamper their reputations to the outside world.

Figure of speech, but all in one voice, some media and a majority of scientists alike, seem to already know the truth, and the truth is that Dr. Hwang denies again admitting his fabrication of the cloning research paper. The media and several online journals are impatiently waiting to see the result. Impatient, because they already know the whole story except one part of it. Next time, they will launch another, much BIGGER and more devasting round of investigation, whose title will be: Hwang-Gate – who is behind the fraud this world-famous "cunning" expert committed?